I have previously argued that the United States does not have a strategic presence in the South Caucasus and has never had one. I expressed the opinion that the Trump administration is not an exception to this situation: it also had its own clear interests in the South Caucasus, but the desire and need to ensure a strategic presence there had not been formed. Of course, the South Caucasus has an extremely complex geography: it borders the arguably main competitor of the United States – Russia, its main adversary – Iran, and a strategic ally – Turkey.
In recent weeks, the policy of the United States in the South Caucasus has been discussed quite actively. This is due to Trump’s announcement of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, at the core of which is the idea of building a corridor in the South Caucasus; that is, through the territory of Armenia. The corridor would connect Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan, and from there, through Turkey, to Europe. With this step, of course, the United States can ensure a presence in the region, if the plan is implemented during the Trump presidency.
This will be possible in particular if, as a result of the implementation of the project, American companies are involved in the project of this road as investors and, at the same time, as guarantors of road safety. However, this will be a business presence, not a strategic presence in the South Caucasus.
Yes, the business presence may turn into a strategic one over time if this road acquires great importance and the volume of cargo transportation carried out through it is so large that it will provide a huge financial inflow, both to the Armenian budget and to the American companies that will be represented on this road. Experts argue that this road can begin to bring real benefits only from 2030.
However, from now to 2030 is a rather long period of time: by then not only will the Trump administration no longer exist, but it will also face the period of mid-term elections for the 48th president. Therefore, it is difficult to imagine that after making such long-term investments, there can be clear American guarantees regarding the preservation or continuation of the “Trump Road.”
That means that this is a long-term investment, about which – yes, as of today – there may be some American guarantees, as long as Trump continues to be president of the United States. But what will happen in four years is extremely difficult to predict, especially taking into account regional factors. For example, Iran and Russia are unlikely to come to terms with the idea that the United States can provide a business presence in their immediate neighborhood, which has the potential to become strategic in the future.
